Manpower Employment Outlook Survey
Mary Ann Lasky
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Data Reflects Strongest Quarter 1 Intent to Hire Since 2008
MILWAUKEE (Dec. 10, 2013) – The latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, released today by ManpowerGroup, reflects continued optimism among employers for the start of 2014, as U.S. employers report a seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook of +13%. This represents the strongest Outlook reported in Quarter 1 since 2008 when the Outlook was +16%. At +13%, the Outlook is the same as the Quarter 4 2013 Outlook and is up from +12% during the same period last year.
Of the more than 18,000 employers surveyed, 17 percent anticipate an increase in staff levels in their Quarter 1 2014 hiring plans, while 7 percent expect a decrease in payrolls, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +10%. When seasonally adjusted, the Net Employment Outlook becomes +13%. Seventy-three percent of employers expect no change in their hiring plans. The final 3 percent of employers are undecided about their hiring intentions.
U.S. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Results
|Quarter||Increase Staff Levels||Decrease Staff Levels||Maintain Staff Levels||Don’t Know||Net Employment Outlook(deseasonalized)|
|Q4 2013(previous quarter)||18%||8%||72%||2%||13%|
|Q1 2013(one year ago)||17%||8%||72%||3%||12%|
“Employers remain optimistic and continue to gradually improve their hiring projections despite the uneven economic recovery and other global and domestic influences,” said Jonas Prising, President, ManpowerGroup. “We’re starting to see talent strategy match the importance of business strategy as individuals with the right skills and experience become harder to find. Today, almost every major business decision focuses on knowing how to access, mobilize and optimize workforces to remain competitive.”
This quarter’s research shows that employer hiring confidence remains stable quarter-over-quarter. This stability is reflected in the Net Employment Outlook for 12 of the 13 industry sectors, as employers report relatively stable hiring intentions.
“There will always be regional swings in one industry or another, but this quarter’s topline consistency with the results from last quarter and one year ago indicates that employers are clinging to their competitive positions,” said Prising. “However, for widespread employment growth to occur, we will need to see hiring intentions increase at a much faster pace.”
Although first-quarter Outlooks remain relatively stable across all regions, the states and Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) indicate some variance in hiring intentions. Among the 50 states, employers in North Dakota indicate the strongest Net Employment Outlook at +17%. Only one state, Montana, has a negative Outlook at -2%. Employers in the majority of the 100 MSAs surveyed report positive hiring plans, with Deltona, Fla., the most positive at +24%. At the other end of the spectrum, Buffalo, N.Y., employers report the weakest Outlook at -2%.
Hiring Outlooks for Industry Sectors and Regions
New this quarter, the survey results include deseasonalized data at the industry level, which aligns with the methodology used to tabulate and present the national and regional data. Therefore, the numbers presented below are deseasonalized across all industries.
For Quarter 1 2014, employers have a positive Outlook in all 13 industry sectors included in the survey: Leisure & Hospitality (+23%), Wholesale & Retail Trade (+19%), Professional & Business Services (+16%), Transportation & Utilities (+13%), Information (+13%), Nondurable Goods Manufacturing (+12%), Mining (+11%), Durable Goods Manufacturing (+10%), Financial Activities (+10%), Construction (9%), Education & Health Services (+8%), Other Services (+6%) and Government (+6%). When the industry sector data is compared quarter-over-quarter, staff levels are expected to remain relatively stable among employers in 12 industry sectors. Only Transportation & Utilities employers anticipate a slight decrease in the hiring pace.
Employers in all four U.S. regions surveyed report positive Net Employment Outlooks. Quarter-over-quarter, plans to add workers remain consistent among employers in all regions. Compared to one year ago at this time, employers in the South project a slight increase in hiring for Quarter 1 2014, while employers in the Northeast, Midwest and West expect a relatively stable hiring environment.
As a supplement to the Quarter 1 2014 survey results, an infographic is available for download at http://press.manpower.com/. “Where Are The Jobs?” offers a snapshot of data and trends from the survey, including key metro area and state Outlooks along with an industry forecast.
The next Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be released on March 11, 2014, to report hiring expectations for Quarter 2 2014. To receive e-mail notification when the survey is available each quarter, visit http://press.manpower.com/signup.
*The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting a decrease in hiring activity.
About the Survey
ManpowerGroup’s quarterly Manpower Employment Outlook Survey measures employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. It is the only forward-looking survey of its kind, unparalleled in size, scope, longevity and area of focus.
The survey is conducted using a validated methodology in accordance with the highest standards in market research. In the U.S., the survey is conducted by an independent, third party research firm and includes a select sample of more than 18,000 U.S. employers. This sample represents the largest 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas based on business establishment count and all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. The mix of industries within the survey follows the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) Supersectors and is structured to be representative of the U.S. economy. With this number of interviews, the overall U.S. survey carries a margin of error of +/-0.61%, with a 90% confidence index.
The complete results from the U.S. national Manpower Employment Outlook Survey are available for download at press.manpower.com, where you will also find the survey results for the 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas surveyed, 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico.
About ManpowerGroup – United States
ManpowerGroup™ (NYSE: MAN) is an innovative workforce solutions company specializing in temporary and permanent recruitment, career management, outsourcing and HR consulting. Founded in 1948, Milwaukee-based ManpowerGroup is a $22 billion company with offices in more than 80 countries and territories around the world. Each day, ManpowerGroup connects more than 630,000 people to meaningful work through its relationships with 400,000 clients worldwide. In the United States, ManpowerGroup operates more than 500 offices through its family of companies, including Manpower®, Experis™, ManpowerGroup™ Solutions and Right Management®. To learn more, visit www.manpowergroup.us and press.manpower.com.
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