Employers Optimistic About Fourth Quarter Job Prospects Amid Continued Economic Uncertainty
MILWAUKEE (September 10, 2013) – The latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, released today by ManpowerGroup, indicates elevated confidence for the final quarter of 2013 as U.S. employers report a seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook of +13%, the strongest fourth quarter Outlook since Quarter 4 2007 when the Outlook was +19%.
Of the more than 18,000 employers surveyed, 18 percent anticipate an increase in staff levels in their Quarter 4 2013 hiring plans, while 8 percent expect a decrease in payrolls. According to the seasonally adjusted survey results, the +13% Net Employment Outlook for Quarter 4 2013 is up from +12% during Quarter 3 2013 and from +11% during the same period last year.
U.S. Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Results
||% Increase Staff Levels
||% Decrease Staff Levels
||% No Change in Staff Levels
||% Don’t Know Hiring Plans
||Net Employment Outlook (Deseasonalized)
(One Year Ago)
“We’ve seen consistent, yet measured, momentum in employers’ hiring plans in a steadily improving market,” said Jonas Prising, ManpowerGroup President. “Employers have reached a level of confidence in navigating unstable conditions, and the strength of the Quarter 4 2013 survey data suggests a stronger close to 2013.”
This quarter’s research shows the Outlook remains stable quarter-over-quarter and is slightly elevated compared to last year at this time. Intent to hire also continues to rise with 18 percent of employers indicating an increase in staff levels for Quarter 4 2013. This is the highest percentage of employers projecting an increase in hiring in the fourth quarter since before 2009 when the number consistently remained above 20 percent.
Growth is also reflected among several key industry sectors. At +22%, the Outlook for Wholesale & Retail Trade reflects a moderate increase in hiring year-over-year and is the strongest Outlook for this sector since it reached +26% in Quarter 4 2007. Construction employers also indicate continued progress when compared year-over-year, as the Net Employment Outlook increases slightly from +1% in Quarter 4 2012 to +5% in Quarter 4 2013.
“Employers plan to hire during the fourth quarter, particularly in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, and that’s good news for job seekers looking for employment during the busy holiday season,” said Prising. “Employers bring on new staff when they start seeing increased demand for their products and services, and this intention to hire may signal optimism among U.S. employers.”
Among the 50 states, employers in North Carolina, South Carolina and Texas indicate the strongest Net Employment Outlook, all at +15%. Employers in all 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) surveyed report positive hiring plans, with the strongest Outlook in Houston, reaching +28%.
Hiring Outlooks for Industry Sectors and Regions
For Quarter 4 2013, employers have a positive Outlook in all 13 industry sectors included in the survey: Wholesale & Retail Trade (+22%), Leisure & Hospitality (+17%), Professional & Business Services (+13%), Transportation & Utilities (+11%), Information (+11%), Financial Activities (+10%), Mining (+9%), Education & Health Services (+9%), Durable Goods Manufacturing (+8%), Nondurable Goods Manufacturing (+7%), Construction (+5%), Government (+4%) and Other Services (+2%). When the industry sector data is compared quarter-over-quarter, employers in the Wholesale & Retail Trade and Education & Health Services sectors anticipate a slight hiring increase, while employers in the Information sector expect the hiring pace to remain stable. The hiring pace is expected to moderately decrease in seven industry sectors: Durable Goods Manufacturing, Nondurable Goods Manufacturing, Transportation & Utilities, Financial Activities, Professional & Business Services, Other Services and Government. A considerable decline in hiring is anticipated in the Mining, Construction and Leisure & Hospitality sectors.
A positive Net Employment Outlook is reported in all four U.S. regions. Quarter-over-quarter, plans to add employees are slightly stronger among employers in the Northeast, and remain essentially the same among employers in the Midwest, South and West. Compared to one year ago at this time, employers in the Northeast and West project a slight increase in hiring for Quarter 4 2013, and employers in the Midwest and South expect a stable hiring environment.
As a supplement to the Quarter 4 2013 survey results, an infographic is available for download at http://press.manpower.com/. “Where the Jobs Are” offers a snapshot of data and trends from the survey, including key state and metro area-specific Outlooks along with an industry projection.
The next Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be released on December 10, 2013, to report hiring expectations for Quarter 1 2014. To receive an e-mail notification when the survey is available each quarter, visit http://press.manpower.com/signup.
*The Net Employment Outlook is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting a decrease in hiring activity.
About the Survey
ManpowerGroup’s quarterly Manpower Employment Outlook Survey measures employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. It is the only forward-looking survey of its kind, unparalleled in size, scope, longevity and area of focus.
The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using a validated methodology in accordance with the highest standards in market research. In the U.S., the survey is conducted by an independent, third party research firm and includes a select sample of more than 18,000 U.S. employers. This sample represents the top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas based on business establishment count and all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. The mix of industries within the survey follows the North American Industry
Classification System (NAICS) Supersectors and is structured to be representative of the U.S. economy. With this number of interviews, the overall U.S. survey carries a margin of error of +/-0.61%, with a 90% confidence index.
The complete results from the U.S. national Manpower Employment Outlook Survey are available for download at press.manpower.com, where you will also find the survey results for the 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas surveyed, 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico.
About ManpowerGroup – United States
ManpowerGroup™ (NYSE: MAN) is an innovative workforce solutions company specializing in temporary and permanent recruitment, career management, outsourcing and HR consulting. Founded in 1948, Milwaukee-based ManpowerGroup is a $22 billion company with offices in more than 80 countries and territories around the world. Each day, ManpowerGroup connects more than 630,000 people to meaningful work through its relationships with 400,000 clients worldwide. In the United States, ManpowerGroup operates more than 500 offices through its family of companies, including Manpower®, Experis™, ManpowerGroup™ Solutions and Right Management®. To learn more, visit www.manpowergroup.us and press.manpower.com.
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