Positive Employment Prospects Reported Across All States and Industry Sectors Surveyed
MILWAUKEE (March 8, 2011) – Confidence among U.S. employers is spreading geographically, according to the seasonally adjusted results of the latest Manpower Employment Outlook Survey, conducted quarterly by Manpower Inc.
According to the seasonally adjusted* survey results, the Outlook* for Quarter 2 2011 is +8%, up from +6% during the same period last year and consistent with the +8% Outlook during Quarter 1 2011.
Survey highlights include:
- Positive Outlook in Every State: Employers in all 50 states report positive hiring intentions and 33 out of 50 states anticipate considerable increases. Puerto Rico and Washington D.C. employers also report positive hiring intentions.
- All Industries Looking to Hire: Employers in the 13 industry sectors surveyed each report a positive Outlook, with Mining and Leisure & Hospitality employers the most optimistic. Employers in 10 of the 13 industry sectors expect hiring to increase from three months ago.
- Six Straight Quarters of Employment Growth: Employers have reported a positive overall hiring Outlook since Quarter 1 2010, according to seasonally adjusted data.
- Fewer Employers Plan to Decrease Headcounts: Six percent of employers plan to reduce employee levels in Quarter 2 2011, down from recessionary highs of 14 percent in 2009.
“We should see the same measured hiring pace in the U.S. as we did in the first quarter; however, unadjusted industry sector data reveals some positive signs,” said Jeffrey A. Joerres, Manpower Inc. Chairman and CEO. “First, employers in 10 of the 13 industry sectors surveyed expect hiring to improve from three months ago. Second, there is a notable uptick in the Manufacturing-Durables sector where nearly one in five employers expect to increase payrolls.”
Of the more than 18,000 employers surveyed, 16 percent anticipate an increase in staff levels in their Quarter 2 2011 hiring plans, while 6 percent expect a decrease in payrolls, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +10%. When seasonally adjusted, the Net Employment Outlook becomes +8%. Seventy-four percent of employers expect no change in their hiring plans. The final 4 percent of employers indicate they are undecided about their hiring intentions.
“Nearly all of the of the key data points in our survey show that employers are positive, but hiring plans are still reserved due to their continued ability to manage the slowly increasing demand with the existing workforce,” said Jonas Prising, Manpower president of the Americas. “In the U.S., we are holding on to hard-won job gains and waiting for the time when the growth in demand for goods and services will require more substantial workforce additions.”
Employers in each of the 13 industry sectors surveyed have a positive Outlook for Quarter 2 2011: Leisure & Hospitality (+21%), Mining (+21%), Professional & Business Services (+15%), Durable Goods Manufacturing (+14%), Wholesale & Retail Trade (+12%), Nondurable Goods Manufacturing (+11%), Financial Activities (+9%), Information (+9), Transportation & Utilities (+8%), Other Services (+7%), Construction (+6%), Education & Health Services (+6%) and Government (+1%). Employers in 10 industry sectors expect employment prospects to increase quarter-over-quarter, three expect staff levels to remain stable and none of the surveyed industries look for the hiring pace to decline. Among the 10 industries expecting an uptick in hiring confidence, employers in both the Mining sector and Construction sector anticipate the largest quarter-over-quarter Net Employment Outlook increase, with both gaining 15 percentage points.
Employers in all four U.S. geographic regions surveyed report a seasonally adjusted Outlook of +8%. The hiring Outlook in the West is the strongest for the region since Quarter 4 2008. Compared to one year ago, a slight increase in employment prospects is expected in the Midwest, South and West, while the Northeast is steady. Quarter over quarter, employers in the Northeast, South and West report relatively stable hiring conditions, while employers in the Midwest expect a slight dip in employment plans.
The next Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be released on June 14, 2011, to report hiring expectations for Quarter 3 2011. To receive e-mail notification when the survey is available each quarter, visit http://press.manpower.com/signup.
*Note to Editors
Seasonal Adjustment: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is presented in a deseasonalized format. Also known as seasonal adjustment, the calibration removes effects of normally recurring influences (e.g. weather, holidays, school calendars) to obtain a more accurate view of movements in the data not attributable to these factors. Each new quarter of results are immediately integrated into the survey’s historical database. As new data is added, slight changes are possible to previous quarters’ seasonal adjustments and the historical data is therefore reported in its updated form. Data that has been seasonally adjusted is identified, and both adjusted and unadjusted data is published in our quarterly research report.
Net Employment Outlook: The Net Employment Outlook, often shortened to simply Outlook or NEO, is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting a decrease in hiring activity.
About the Survey
The global leader in innovative workforce solutions, Manpower Inc. releases the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforce during the next quarter. It is the longest running, most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, polling nearly 64,000 employers in 39 countries and territories. The Manpower survey serves as a bellwether of labor market trends and activities. The survey is regularly used to inform the Bank of England’s Inflation Reports, as well as a regular data source for the European Commission, informing its EU Employment Situation and Social Outlook report the ‘Monthly Monitor.’ Manpower’s independent survey data is also sourced by financial analysts and economists around the world to help determine where labor markets are headed.
The survey is conducted using a validated methodology in accordance with the highest standards in market research. In the U.S., the survey is conducted by an independent, third-party research firm and includes a select sample of more than 18,000 U.S. employers. This sample represents the top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas based on business establishment count and all 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico. The mix of industries within the survey follows the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) Supersectors and is structured to be representative of the U.S. economy. With this number of interviews, the overall U.S. survey carries a margin of error of +/-0.61%, with a 90% confidence index.
The complete results and visuals from the U.S. national Manpower Employment Outlook Survey are available for download at press.manpower.com, where you will also find the survey results for the 100 MSAs, 50 states, D.C. and Puerto Rico.
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